How to put a value on a lead without a data team

Optimising for conversion count treats every outcome as equal. Optimising for value requires values, and the usual objection is that nobody knows them precisely.

Precision is not the requirement. Direction is.

The calculation

Three numbers:

Lead-to-customer rate. Of the enquiries you receive, what share become paying customers? Sales knows this approximately, even if nobody has written it down.

Average order value, or average first-year value for anything recurring.

Margin, if you want to optimise for profit rather than revenue. Optional, and worth adding once the basic version works.

Then: lead value = conversion rate x average value.

100 leads, 15 become customers, average £2,400 → each lead is worth £360.

Segmenting it

The single number is the starting point. The improvement is splitting it where the difference is genuinely large:

By form. A quote request and a general enquiry convert at very different rates.

By service. An emergency callout and a routine service are different businesses wearing the same website.

By channel, if the difference is real and stable. Careful here — this can become circular, teaching bidding that the channel it already favours is more valuable.

Two or three values is plenty. Twelve is a maintenance burden that will go stale.

Sending them

Static values on the conversion action in Google Ads, or dynamic values in the GA4 event where the page knows which form was submitted.

Dynamic is better. Static is dramatically better than nothing, and can be configured in ten minutes.

Why it changes the account

With values attached and a value-based bidding strategy, the algorithm stops optimising for volume and starts optimising for money. Accounts frequently report fewer conversions after this change, at higher total value — which is a result that needs explaining before it happens, not after.

Reviewing it

Quarterly. Conversion rates and order values drift, and a value set two years ago is now steering the account with stale information. Put it in a calendar; nobody remembers otherwise.